Indonesia's chairmanship and future of Indian Ocean

Banners for the IORA Summit wave in Jakarta [Credit: Kumparan]

This week Jakarta will once again play host to foreign leaders as it welcomes more than 16 heads of government/state for the inaugural IORA (Indian Ocean Rim Association) Leaders’ Summit. Under the theme of ‘Strengthening Maritime Cooperation for a Peaceful, Stable and Prosperous Indian Ocean’, the summit will commemorate the 20th anniversary of IORA, marking an important milestone in the regional organization’s development.

Aside from holding the first ever gathering among the leaders of IORA’s 21 member countries, the current chair Indonesia aims to produce three key outcome documents that will define IORA’s vision for the future: the IORA Concord, the IORA Action Plan, and the IORA Declaration on Countering Violent Extremism leading to Terrorism. While these gatherings often produce such documents, Jakarta’s effort should not be underestimated. The IORA Concord is expected to provide the platform to boost regional economic partnership and provide a code of conduct to address common problems in the world’s third largest ocean. For a regional organization that has been described as underdeveloped and underutilized, the move towards greater regionalism should be applauded.

Meanwhile the IORA Declaration on Countering Violent Extremism leading to Terrorism would mark a significant departure from its previous narrow focus on economic issues. IORA’s stated objectives as outlined in its Charter are all economic-related, such as to promote sustained growth and balanced development, to focus on areas of economic cooperation, and to explore all possibilities and avenues for trade liberalization, among others. Proposals for an APEC-style IORA Business Travel Card and the fact that an IORA Business Summit will also be held on the sideline of this week’s event are testament to the economic raison d’etre of IORA.

On the one hand this makes sense. By IORA’s own admission, its member countries are considerably diverse bringing together regional powers such as Australia, India and Indonesia, small island nations such as Comoros and Seychelles, and conflict-torn countries such as Somalia and Yemen. While the Indian Ocean is said to be the commonality that binds together this diverse group, IORA’s reference to the many centuries in which ‘explorers, pilgrims, fishermen, traders and merchants have traversed the Indian Ocean’ makes it clear that economic activities are what really unites the member countries.

On the other hand, however, it would be naïve to say that IORA is a purely economics, politics-free grouping. The omission of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia from the regional organization certainly raises eyebrows and one cannot help wonder whether their respective rivals India and Iran, who incidentally are IORA members, may have been a factor. Indeed Islamabad submitted an application for membership as far back as 2001 and is still awaiting a response from the IORA Secretariat. However it would be unfair to expect Indonesia to be able overcome such complex issues such as Iran-Saudi Arabia and India-Pakistan rivalries during its chairmanship of IORA.

Regarding the IORA Leaders’ Summit itself, which will be led by President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo himself, it is fair to ask whether the gathering of heads of government/states is really indicative of a significant evolution in the regional organization. While the upgrading of the gathering from a ministerial-level meeting to that of a summit is full of symbolism that suggests greater importance being placed by IORA member countries and a maturing sense of regionalism in the Indian Ocean area, it is notable that the official title of the event is the ‘Leaders' Summit in Commemoration of the 20th Anniversary of Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA)’. In other words, it would seem that the IORA Leaders’ Summit is merely a one-off event and that future gatherings would revert back to ministerial-level meetings.

This would be a shame if it were to be the case. The Indian Ocean is full of potential and importance, yet arguably does not attract the attention it deserves. Half of the world’s container ships and two-thirds of global oil shipments pass through this area. Meanwhile, if combined, IORA member countries represent over 2 billion people. The strategic importance of the Indian Ocean has also been highlighted by others. For example the Indian Ocean has been described as ‘an alternative foreign policy axis’ to China or the United States and a possible ‘countervailing network’ to Beijing’s Maritime Silk Initiative.

Yet as Indonesian officials note, the Indian Ocean suffers from a ‘vacuum of leadership’ and a ‘governance gap’. It could be argued that a similar situation existed in ASEAN in its early years and that it was not until Indonesia pushed for the Bali Concord I in 1976 and held the first ever ASEAN Summit in the same year that real progress was made. However, in the case of ASEAN, there was a natural leader in the form of Indonesia. None exists in the Indian Ocean. Similarly, while Indonesian norms such as permusyawaratan (consultation) and permufakatan (consensus) were readily adopted by ASEAN member countries, it is difficult to see whether similar norms could be taken up by IORA member countries.

It thus remains to be seen whether Jakarta’s efforts over the past two years as IORA chair to fill this leadership vacuum and governance gap will be enough. One thing for sure however is that amidst global uncertainty, increasing tensions, and more unilateral and assertive actions taken by global powers, the Indian Ocean desperately needs to step up lest it be nothing more than a bystander.

[This article was first published in The Jakarta Post on 7th March 2017 and can be found at: https://www.thejakartapost.com/academia/2017/03/07/indonesias-chairmanship-and-future-of-indian-ocean.html]