2019 race: Early foreign policy views
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| A 'bajaj' (rickshaw) passes the Merdeka Palace in Jakarta [Credit: Flickr myklbak] |
After months of speculation, a roller coaster week and even eleventh-hour surprises that left the nation on tenterhooks, we now know who will compete in the presidential election next year.
Incumbent President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, and his running mate Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI) chairman Ma’ruf Amin, will go against his former opponent in the last election Prabowo Subianto, who this time has selected outgoing Jakarta deputy governor Sandiaga Uno to be on his ticket.
During their candidacy announcements, it became clear that the economy would be a key battleground in the upcoming election. Though Jokowi has failed to deliver on the 7 percent GDP growth he had promised, the economy did beat expectations in the second quarter of 2018 to grow by 5.27 percent. At the same time, the country stands to benefit from the government’s aggressive infrastructure spending with Bank Indonesia forecasting GDP growth to be between 5.1 and 5.5 percent for the year.
Meanwhile, Prabowo has highlighted Indonesia’s falling rupiah, which is one of the region’s worst performers this year, the current account deficit, which widened to its highest point in nearly four years, and the struggles of a number of state-owned enterprises as indications that not all is well.
Analysts, however, have been quick to point out that the fundamentals of Indonesia’s economy remain sound, and that it is more a case of global factors putting pressure on the economy. Nonetheless, this point underlines the importance of Indonesia’s global environment and raises questions about how the presidential race will impact Jakarta’s foreign policy in the future.
Indonesia is still looked upon as the regional leader in Southeast Asia, being a founding member of ASEAN, and representing almost 40 percent of the region’s total population, GDP and land mass. What Jakarta says and does undoubtedly impact on what ASEAN and the wider region says and does.
In this sense, how should foreign capitals interpret the latest development in Indonesia’s presidential race?
Jokowi’s pick seems to confirm his foreign-policy disinterest. While Mar’uf is a respected religious scholar, he has almost no international experience and is probably unknown in Washington DC, Beijing, Moscow and Canberra amongst others. During Jokowi’s first term, the President often delegated current Vice President Jusuf Kalla to represent Indonesia at international summits such as the UN General Assembly or important ASEAN retreats.
It would be difficult to see Mar’uf taking up this role and his conservative views on minority groups and other issues are at odds with the modern and pluralistic image that Indonesia wishes to project abroad. Having said that, his religious credentials, may give Indonesia greater weight with the Muslim world and international groupings such as the Organization for Islamic Cooperation (OIC).
Meanwhile, Prabowo’s pick has the greater international experience having held senior positions with companies in Singapore and Canada and holding a postgraduate degree from George Washington University in the United States. However, constitutionally the vice president has very little powers other than to “assist” the president in exercising his/her duties. It is up to each individual president to decide how much he/she wishes to delegate powers to their vice president.
Being almost 20 years Prabowo’s junior, it is unlikely that the Prabowo-Sandiago partnership will be one of equals. Foreign policy under a Prabowo-Sandiago government will thus be dominated by the former soldier, and it is no secret that several foreign governments are uneasy at the prospect of working with an individual tainted by alleged human rights abuses, including the abduction of student activists back in 1998.
At the end of the day, of course, Indonesia’s presidential race will be determined by the Indonesian people alone. However, in casting their choice next year, the 185 million registered voters should be mindful of the preamble to the 1945 Constitution, namely the objective of participating “toward the establishment of a world order based on freedom, perpetual peace and social justice”.
In order to do so, Indonesia needs a government that is both interested and capable of playing its part on the international stage, working together and engaging with other nations to contribute solutions to the complex challenges this world faces. The question for Indonesians then becomes, between Jokowi-Ma’ruf and Prabowo-Sandiago, who is the better choice?
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