Renewed ASEAN position on South China Sea?
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| China's Navy launches its first domestically-produced aircraft carrier [Credit: Reuters] |
July marked two years since the international arbitration court ruled in favor of the Philippines versus China concerning their maritime jurisdiction dispute in the South China Sea. With Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan also making own claims to the disputed area, much was expected from the landmark ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration on July 12, 2016.
Unfortunately, under the then-newly installed Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, Manila chose not to take advantage of its victory, instead opting to put the ruling to one side to develop closer ties with Beijing. That decision arguably undermined any efforts by ASEAN member states and regional powers to pressure China into complying with international law, in particular the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
Much has happened, however, since that landmark ruling in The Hague, Netherlands.
For one, Beijing has continued to ignore the court’s ruling, proceeding ahead with its reclamation of features in the South China Sea and installing military facilities on its man-made islands. At the same time, the United States has abandoned its previous “pivot to Asia” and under President Donald Trump it is showing itself to be an unpredictable actor in the region. Washington’s announcement that it would suspend joint military exercises with South Korea, imposition of a steel and iron tariff that initially included Australia, and even threats of a trade war with Indonesia are just some examples.
Such developments have left many observers pessimistic about the future prospect of the South China Sea, with control over the disputed area seemingly being handed over to Beijing. Even supposed progress on a code of conduct (COC) between ASEAN and China appears little more than lip service that will do little to change the facts on the ground. That includes recent developments at the 51st ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting and Related Meetings whereby ASEAN and China announced they had agreed on a single draft negotiating text that will ‘be the basis of future COC negotiations.’ Sixteen years on since the two sides agreed on a non-binding Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) in 2002, it is highly questionable that they have only now agreed on such a basis to conduct future negotations.
It is thus interesting that Malaysia has pledged to take a firmer stance with Beijing with regard to the South China Sea. The return of Mahathir Mohamad promises to shake up ASEAN and the region. At 92 years old, the former prime minister came out of retirement to lead the then-opposition Pakatan Harapan to inflict the first ever electoral defeat on the then-ruling Barisan Nasional, which had governed the country for 61 unbroken years.
As one of the “ASEAN titans”, together with the late Soeharto and Singapore’s late Lee Kuan Yew, Mahathir certainly has the personality, strength of will and capability to renew the regional organization’s position on the South China Sea. Indeed, the Malaysian Prime Minister has already called on Beijing to withdraw its warships noting, “Warships create tension” before adding, “If China wants to participate with small boats, they are welcome. Anybody, even the US if they want to participate – but don’t bring battleships here.”
More recently, Malaysian Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah, who recently visited Jakarta, announced that the COC would be up for discussion during the ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting in Singapore in early August. Describing the current Declaration on the Conduct of Parties (DOC) signed in 2002 as lacking any “fangs”, the foreign minister told the Malaysian parliament that Putrajaya was considering bringing China to the International Court of Justice to defend its claims over Swallow Reef/Layang Layang Island, “if once we have the COC, [China] is still aggressive.”
Such statements from Malaysia’s seat of government should not be underestimated. Malaysia has already scrapped a China-funded high-speed railway project that was supposed to connect Kuala Lumpur with Singapore and is further reviewing other projects involving Beijing.
Indeed, following his election, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson reminded (or warned), “Currently, our bilateral relations enjoy a sound momentum of growth with fruitful outcomes in cooperation which has delivered tangible benefits to the two countries and peoples. This is worth cherishing and upholding by our two sides.”
On the part of Indonesia, Jakarta has traditionally maintained it has no disputes with China, positioning itself as a neutral actor in the South China Sea. However, this policy of strategic ambivalence was somewhat exposed following a series of standoffs in 2016 between Jakarta and Beijing over incidents of illegal fishing by Chinese boats in Indonesian waters. Indonesia has since hardened its position by strengthening its military base on Natuna Island and renaming its part of the water as the North Natuna Sea.
In this sense, Malaysia’s own hardened position presents an opportunity for Jakarta to work together and push back against China’s over-excessive claims to the South China Sea and uphold respect for international law.
Indeed, during a joint press conference with Minister Abdullah, Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi stated that Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur would work together to resolve ongoing border negotiations, to enhance protection for Indonesian migrants workers in Malaysia, and to counter attempts by the EU to restrict their palm oil industry. While they also added their agreement to strengthen ASEAN centrality and unity, the issue of the South China Sea was not explicitly mentioned.
Two years on since the court in The Hague made its landmark ruling, it could be argued that agreeing on a single draft negotiating text represents some progress. Having cleared a stumbling block of different negotiating texts, the burden is now on China to show good faith and deliver progress on their part. In this sense Jakarta should work with other ASEAN countries to ensure that the region’s renewed position on the South China Sea does not go to waste. Beijing must not be allowed to get away with ignoring the court’s landmark ruling.
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